Grain Market Outlook Meeting: Stanford Grain will be hosting a market outlook meeting on Thursday, Dec. 12th beginning at 8:30AM at the Allin Township building. Aaron Curtis from Mid-Co Commodities will give the market outlook and Adam Nielsen from the Illinois Farm Bureau will also be giving a presentaion. Coffee & donuts will be served. I hope you will be able to attend.
Tuesday Afternoon Comments-Dec. 10th Corn futures managed to close higher as the crop report failed to create much market movement. The December balance sheet update by the USDA typically is a non-event and this month was no exception. In fact, the USDA left the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 19/20 are still estimated at 1.910 Bln. bu, just under the recent 5-year average of corn ending stocks. World corn ending stocks were up 4.6 MMT to 300.56 MMT. This was mainly due to a 6.8 MMT increase in the Chinese corn crop. The next USDA report will be on January 10th. That report will include the final production numbers for 2019, Dec. 1st quarterly stocks, U.S. and world balance sheet revisions, and the first look at winter wheat plantings. The crop progress report showed 92% of the corn is harvested. Delays persist in North Dakota (43% done), Wisconsin (74%), and Michigan (74%). This was the last composite report of the season. The weather forecast looks open again through the end of this week. Cooler than normal temps, however, are expected to persist into next week. The weekly ethanol report will be out tomorrow. Last week showed the 10th consecutive week of increased production.
Soybeans closed 3 to 4 cents higher today, marking the 6th day in a row of a higher close in January beans. The crop report failed to create much additional excitement to the upside, but it also wasn’t negative! The USDA left the U.S. balance sheet unchanged, with bean ending stocks at 475 Mln. bu. World ending stocks for beans were up 1 MMT to 96.4 MMT. This increase was mostly due to a 1 MMT increase in Chinese bean production. Final U.S. bean production will be released in the January crop report. Interest in U.S. bean exports to China increased over the last couple of days as China issued another round of duty-free U.S. imports. The U.S. was still slated to increase tariffs on China again this weekend, but that looks less likely now as trade talks once again have a friendly feel. The USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) is expected to be voted on next week by the U.S. as House Democrats and Trump agreed on a couple of key remaining issues. Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. are expected to re-sign the agreement this afternoon. The reaction was muted for the grains as both countries are active customers already.
USDA report – December 10, 2019
USDA – Dec.
Avg. Est.
USDA - Nov
Corn ending stocks 19/20
1.910
1.919
1.910
Bean ending stocks 19/20
0.475
0.476
0.475
Wheat ending stocks 19/20
0.974
1.010
1.014
Brazil Corn Production
101.0
100.93
101.0
Brazil Bean Production
123.0
123.03
123.0
Argentina Corn Production
50.0
49.77
50.0
Argentina Bean Production
53.0
53.0
53.0
No changes for corn and soybeans. A little lower ending stocks for wheat.
7-day expected precip:
6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
Have a good & safe night.
“Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” Ronald Regan
Stanford Grain Company
