Stanford Grain Company
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Tuesday, January 28, 2020
 
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Monday Afternoon Comments-Jan. 27th

Corn closed 5-7 cents lower, but off session lows. Funds were active sellers of 12,000 contracts by mid-day. They held an estimated short position of 59,000 contracts to start the day. Coronavirus concerns ruled the day in most markets as the DOW is down almost 400 points, crude oil is a $1 lower at $53.20, livestock, softs, and dairy are all lower. Metals are mixed with gold higher. The dollar is firmer on world economic uncertainty. Corn, beans, and wheat have found pressure from a lack of Chinese commodity purchases immediately after the trade deal signing, and the coronavirus outbreak and its unknown impact on world health and economic activity brings additional pressure to commodities. Weekly export inspections for corn were 26.3 mln. bu. and bring YTD inspections to 399 mln. bu. vs. 850 mln. bu. last year. Central America the main destination and NOLA accounting for 80% of the week’s total. Brazil’s corn inspections last week estimated at 5.4 mln. bu. and Argentina did not export any corn last week.

Soybeans closed 5 cents lower, not bad considering they were 14 cents lower at one point during the session today. SBM and SBO both lower today also. Funds were sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans by mid-day to add to their estimated short position of 28,000 contacts. It did not take long to liquidate their long position after China did not come in for purchases immediately after the trade deal signing. The wording that they’d buy if economically feasible seemingly took away some bullishness with cheaper S. American beans on the horizon. Weekly export inspections were 38.2 mln. bu. and bring YTD inspections to 926 mln. bu. vs. 753 mln. bu. last year. 67% loaded out of NOLA and 20% out of the PNW. S. American weather remains on the dry side in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil, but these areas are expecting some precip over the next 10 days.

Wheat rallied through the session to close just a penny lower. Futures are supported by just enough adverse weather around the world to firm balance sheets. Funds are long 35,000 contracts, their largest long position since 2015. We probably need some export business to keep futures supported.

 

 7-day expected precip:

6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)

Have a good & safe night!

Character is the ability to carry out a good resolution long after the excitement of the moment has passed.

Cavett Robert