Stanford Grain will be closed on Monday, July 4th. CBOT Holiday Schedule: Friday, July 1st: Regular Schedule Sunday, July 3rd: No overnight session Monday, July 4th: Closed (no overnight trade) Tuesday, July 5th: Markets open at 8:30AM
Due to a 3 day weekend and market volatility, SGC will not buy grain after 1:15PM Friday afternoon, July 1st, until the markets resume trading Tuesday morning at 8:30AM. We will accept offers during that time.
Good afternoon. What a day as the market absorbed stocks and acreage reports as well as month end and quarter end. Corn closed 26 cents lower nearby and 32-35 cents lower in the deferred months. Hard to believe based on current price action, but CN lost just 9 cents this month. Funds were estimated sellers of 9,000 corn contracts mid-session and are thought long 231,000 contracts. Weekly export sales were poor at 3.5 mln. bu. and bring YTD commitments to 2.379 bln. bu. vs. 2.738 bln. bu. last year. Corn acreage in the June report came in at 89.9 mln. acres vs. 89.86 mln. estimated. This is 431,000 higher than the March estimate but 3.44 mln. acres below last year. Heart of the belt corn acres are down substantially. MN, ND, and SD will be resurveyed in July due to late planting and changes will be reported, if warranted, in the August report. Southeastern acres are lower, and their weather is not great. Corn supply estimates on a regional basis are a work in progress. Quarterly stocks came in at 4.35 mln. bu. vs. 4.34 bln. bu. expected. This is up 6% from last year. On farm stocks are up 22% from last year while off farm stocks are down 6% from last year. The trend of variability in stocks compared to expectations and how well the stocks vs. cash basis comparison seems to work continues to be an issue. Crude oil future off 4.00 at 105.74 and the DOW off 275 at 30724 not helping much in support of corn futures.
Soybeans closed steady nearby and 20 cents lower in new crop in erratic trade. SN lost just 8 cents this month. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 soybean contracts at mid-day and are thought long 158,000 contracts. They were buyers of SBM and sellers of SBO today. Weekly export sales of -4.4 mln. bu. points to sales cancellations. YTD commitments at 1.901 bln. bu. vs. 2.141 bln. bu. last year. 22/23 sales were 4.7 mln. bu. and bring YTD commitments to 496 mln. bu. The acreage report was a bit of a surprise with acres at 88.3 mln. vs. 90.45 expected. This is 2.7 mln. acres below the March estimate but 1.1 mln. acres higher than last year. MN, ND, and SD will be resurveyed in July due to late planting and changes will be reported, if warranted, in the August report. Bean stocks were 971 mln. bu. vs. 965 mln. bu. estimated. On farm stocks are up 51% and off farm stocks are up 17% from last year.
Wheat pressured again today and fell roughly 45 cents. Chicago WN down 219 cents this month. The great export rush for wheat due to Ukraine has not yet materialized. Funds are thought short 12,000 contracts. Weekly sales at 18.3 mln. bu. and YTD commitments at 212 mln. bu. Wheat acreage about as expected at 47.1 mln. acres, representing the 5th lowest acreage since 1919. Stocks at 660 mln. bu. are 22% below last year.
USDA report – June 30, 2022
USDA – June 1, 2022
USDA – June 1, 2021
Corn quarterly stocks
Bean quarterly stocks
Wheat quarterly stocks
USDA – June 1, 2022
USDA – March 1, 2022
Bean acres less than expected. Bean stocks a bit higher than expected. Corn stocks right on the average guess.
7-day expected precip:
6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time. Thomas A. Edison Have a good and safe night!