Stanford Grain Company
               309-379-2141 Tel 866-379-2141 Toll-free
                             207 West Main Street - Stanford IL 61774 
              
Thursday, July 9, 2020
 
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Stanford Grain Company

Serving our customers since 1895!
Celebrating our 125th Anniversary


Coronavirus Update
The Stanford Grain Co office is open for business.  However, our priority continues to keep our employees and customers healthy and safe.  With that in mind, we prefer that you continue to conduct business by phone (preferred) or e-mail whenever possible.  If you feel that it is necessary to do business in person, please limit the amount of time in the office to taking care of your business only.

 Thank you for your cooperation. 

Brad      


Wednesday Afternoon Comments-July 8th
Corn futures closed 2-3 cents firmer in a 7-cent trading range. Strength in corn tied to firmer wheat futures. Funds were light sellers of 2,000 contracts mid-day to add to an estimated short position of 183,000 contracts. Funds shed 135,000 contracts of their short length after the June 30th reports and increased weather concerns but have slowed down on that project as forecasts for July are showing a bit better precipitation chances, though they remain warm temperature-wise. Weekly ethanol report showed production up for the 10th consecutive week with corn usage at 94 mln. bu., though this is 12.7% less than last year. Ethanol inventories increased by 456,000 barrels, the first increase in 11 weeks. Cash ethanol has improved roughly 50 cents a gallon in that timeframe. Brazil’s CONAB released a corn production estimate of 100.5 MMT, down slightly from their June estimate. USDA July S&D numbers are out Friday with plenty of uncertainty regarding both production and demand, with Export demand both this marketing year and next a concern. 19/20 ending stocks are expected to increase to 2.3 bln. bu. vs. 2.1 bln. bu in June. 20/21 ending stocks are expected to decline to 2.7 bln. bu. vs. 3.3 bln. bu. in June. These levels of carryout take much of the edge off monthly S&D reports. (If it verifies, we’ll have taken 600 mln. bu. off 20/21 corn ending stocks and that’s translated, roughly, to a 13-cent gain in CZ.) Weekly export sales in the morning expected in the 300-600 tmt range – not exciting as Brazil and Argentina remain tough competitors.

Soybean futures closed 2-5 cents lower in a 7- cent trading range. Funds were sellers of 4,000 contracts mid-day to cut into their estimated long position of 80,000 contracts. Improving precipitation chances heading into August, along with no export sales announcement to China, was enough to keep futures defensive today. Brazil’s CONAB estimates soybean production at 120.9 MMT vs. 120.4 MMT last month. Pessimistic viewpoint is that Brazil will keep "finding beans" as they continue to offer beans into the world export market. The USDA July S&D report is not expected to be quite as eventful as in corn, with ending stocks for 19/20 at 584 mln. bu. and holding steady while 20/21 ending stocks estimated at 416 mln. bu. is up slightly from June’s 395 mln. bu. Export demand in play on the balance sheets. Weekly export sales expected at 300-800 tmt in old crop and 400-1,000 tmt in new crop.

Wheat futures led the day today, gaining 16-21 cents today as the market rediscovered production issues in the EU and Russia. Funds were active buyers of 12,000 contracts by mid-day to cut into their estimated short position of 39,000 contracts. Weekly exports expected in the 200-550 tmt range. Miller bids remain much better than river bids in the interior as they look for quality.

USDA report – July 10, 2020

  USDA – 20/21 July Avg. Est. USDA – 20/21 June   USDA –
19/20 July
Avg. Est. USDA – 19/20 June
Corn ending stocks   2.683 3.323     2.277 2.103
Bean ending stocks   0.416 .395     .584 0.585
Wheat ending stocks   0.948 .925        
               
  USDA –
2020 July
Avg. Est.  USDA – 2020 June        
Corn production   15.041 15.995        
Bean production   4.150 4.125        
All wheat production   1.848 1.877        
               


 June 30th USDA Acreage & Stocks Report

  June 2020 Avg. Est. March 2020 2019
Corn acreage 92.0 95.205 96.990 89.700
Bean acreage 83.8 84.764 83.510 76.100
All Wheat 44.3 44.707 44.655 45.158
      Winter 30.55 30.833 30.775 31.159
         
  June 1, 2020 Avg. Est. June 1, 2019 Mar 1, 2020
Corn stocks 5.223 4.990 5.202 7.953
Bean stocks 1.385 1.381 1.783 2.253
Wheat stocks 1.043 0.979 1.080 1.412

Stocks bigger than expected 

All acreage numbers less than expected 

Need to find where all the acres went

  7-day expected precip:


6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)