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Friday Afternoon Comments-Mar. 27th
Corn futures closed lower today. For the week, CK corn was up 2 ¼ cents while CZ was a penny firmer. Uncertainty continues to envelope the market regarding the coronavirus, demand, weather, U.S. spring acreage and yields. This week, the U.S. has become the world’s epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. Today it was reported that the U.S. has the most COVID-19 cases in the world, topping 85,000 people confirmed. One of the main storylines dominating the corn continues to be ethanol profitability as crude oil & gasoline futures are well beneath ethanol futures, causing many corn plants to alter/slow production; with some even suspending operations on negative margins. Today, it was announced the EPA is considering delaying the March 31st deadline for oil refineries to comply with 2019 RFS, to help ease the fallout. On a positive note, corn export demand is improving; as seen in yesterday’s weekly export sales where corn notched a marketing year high. In addition, USDA announced flash sales of 114,048 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 19/20 marketing year this morning. Corn feed demand is also expected to improve as DDG production slows. Next Tuesday will bring the updated U.S. stocks and acreage reports. The trade expects to see March 1st corn stocks near 8.125 bln. bu., well below the past three years while acres are expected at 94.3 mln. vs. 89.7 mln. acres last year. With spring planting season approaching, market partipants are monitoring the weather- though it’s taking a backseat to other storylines at the moment. The Midwest forecast currently calls for a rainy/wet weekend throughout most of the region, followed by a 2nd system expected to move through the middle of next week (favoring the southern areas). A 3rd system is then expected late next week for the western growing areas.
Soybeans started the day firmer but ended the session mixed on position squaring in front of the weekend and next week’s USDA reports. For the week, the nearby SK contract was up 19 cents while SX improved 16 cents. Traders continue to monitor global supply disruptions for soybeans and soymeal due to the coronavirus outbreak. Brazil’s Mato Grosso is dealing with Covid19 issues while Argentine port inspectors are requesting a 15-day work stoppage. Per the Rosario Grain Exchange, the supply of soybeans to Argentine crushing plants is estimated to be down by half and falling, The timing of these delays is proving challenging for China, as their soymeal inventories are reportedly at their lowest level in 10 years, This disruption in output could change global trade flows, turning importers to the U.S. to fill the gap. Thursday’s weekly bean export sales were solidly higher on the week, with China listed as a primary buyer. In addition, USDA announced a flash sale of 63,290 tons of beans sold to Mexico in 19/20 this morning. Harvest continues to progress in Brazil, though weather maps indicate they will see more rainfall this weekend & next week. Most crop areas in Argentina have also seen scattered showers and they are expected to continue through next week. Tuesday’s upcoming USDA reports are expected to still show ample stocks of U.S. beans as of March 1st, near 2.241 bln. bu. and an acreage projection of 84.7 mln. vs. 76.1 mln. last year (remember USDA put numbers together on acres before the market rearranged itself on ethanol demand.)
USDA report – March 31, 2020
Mar. 1, 2020
Avg. Est.
March 1, 2019
Quarterly corn stocks
8.134
8.613
Quarterly bean stocks
2.228
2.727
Quarterly wheat stocks
1.430
1.593
2020
Avg. Est.
2019
Corn Acres
94.1
89.7
Bean Acres
85.0
76.1
All Wheat
45.0
45.2
Winter Wheat
30.8
31.2
7-day expected precip: 6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
You're going to go through tough times - that's life. But I say, 'Nothing happens to you, it happens for you.' See the positive in negative events.
Stanford Grain Company
