Stanford Grain Company
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                             207 West Main Street - Stanford IL 61774 
              
Thursday, August 18, 2022
 
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Stanford Grain Company

Serving our customers since 1895!

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New CBOT Daily Limits effective 5-1-22
Corn: 50 cents 
Beans: $1.15 
Wheat: 70 cents 

Wednesday Afternoon Comments-Aug 17
December corn futures finished today's session 1 3/4 cents higher at $6.12 and November soybeans were up 9 cents at $13.90 while December wheat in Chicago was 22 1/4 cents lower at $7.80 1/2.  
 
Trade was firm in the overnight session as selling pressure eased but took on more of a mixed pattern once the day session opened. Ongoing concerns over the global economy and future commodity demand weighed on futures, primarily the grains. Selling was overdone in the soy complex to start the week, so those values held their gains longer, but were eventually pressured as well. The United States has picked up some beneficial rains this week which have tempered yield loss fears. Rains have also been reported in the EU, although it will be difficult to reverse their production losses. When it comes to global weather more interest is now falling on China where heat is impacting grain production. Ukraine grain shipments are picking up with 5 boats leaving yesterday and 4 more expected to depart today. News the United Nations has bought $68 million of Ukraine grain for world food programs gave the market support. 
 
Corn futures traded both sides of unchanged today as the complex struggled to find fresh news. We continue to see analysts chip away at the US yield forecast, but at the same time, several are also rethinking current demand forecasts. US corn is the cheapest for October delivery forward which should start to attract more global interest. The question with this scenario is how many buyers have needs covered and if they will simply go hand to mouth from this South American corn crop to the next. Brazil has a considerably more corn to export this year and will likely be a factor in the market longer than normal. Corn basis is starting to soften as the new crop harvest approaches. Trade is closely monitoring Ukraine exports to see if these temper demand for US offers as well. 
 
Soybeans rebounded considerably overnight, but gains were held in check during the day session. Exporters remain confident the US will see elevated demand over the next several months, but a lack of buying interest on this week’s price break is causing some doubt. Livestock margins are improving in China and there are hopes this will elevate demand for feed grains, including soybeans. Analysts continue to bump their US soybean yield higher and this is tempering demand outlooks. Domestic demand is offsetting some of these worries as crushers are mostly back in full operation ahead of the upcoming harvest. We are hearing some concerns over Southern US soybean quality which is causing a push for remaining old crop bushels for blending, but this is not generating much movement. 
 
Wheat values struggled today even though the United States is starting to see more demand in the global market. The US wheat market has drifted low enough that US offers are competitive with other world suppliers. The strong US dollar is negating some of this price spread though. Ukraine is increasing the volume of wheat it is exporting and diminishing chances for elevated US sales to cover their absence, although exports are nowhere close to pre-war levels. Wheat was also pressured today by news out of India that the country’s crop may be larger than previously thought. 
 
Ethanol manufacturing slipped lower in this week’s updated production report, declining by 3.8%. For the week ending August 12th US manufacturers produced 6.88 million barrels of ethanol, 273,000 fewer than the week before. Ethanol stocks increased on the week by 190,000 barrels to total 23.45 million. This compares to last year’s 21.56 million barrel inventory. 
 
Not only is ethanol manufacturing in the United States being monitored, but in Brazil as well. Brazil has started to shift more towards corn-based ethanol which is now 15% of the country’s overall production. As a result we are seeing more distiller grain production in Brazil, and also more exports. Brazil has always exported DDGs, but this is ramping up, and competing with the US. This was verified by a sale of 55,000 metric tons of Brazilian DDGs to Vietnam this week. As this output increases it will apply pressure to US DDG exports and ethanol manufacturing margins as well. 
 
While the United States is seeing the spread between our offers and others in the global market narrow, there are other factors driving demand as well. One of the main ones right now is quality and importers want US inventory for blending purposes. Another factor is how quick commodities can be shipped as we once again transition into a “hand to mouth” environment. One of the greatest influences in commodity demand is currency spreads, and unfortunately this is working against the United States.  

USDA report – Aug 12, 2022

  USDA – 22/23 Aug Avg. Est. USDA – 22/23 July USDA – 21/22 Aug Avg. Est. USDA – 21/22 July
Corn ending stocks 1.388 1.407 1.470 1.530 1.520 1.510
Bean ending stocks 0.245 0.225 0.230 0.225 0.226 0.215
Wheat ending stocks 0.610 0.650 0.639      
             
  USDA –
2022 Aug
Avg. Est.  USDA –
2022 July
2021    
Corn production 14.359 14.397 14.505 15.115    
    Corn Yield 175.4 176.0 177.0 177.0    
Bean production 4.531 4.473 4.505 4.435    
    Bean Yield 51.9 51.0 51.5 51.4    
All wheat production 1.783 1.796 1.781 1.646    
      Winter wheat 1.198 1.203 1.201 1.277    
             
  USDA –
22/23 Aug
USDA –
22/23 July
  USDA – 21/22 Aug Avg. Est. USDA – 21/22 July
Brazil Corn 126.0 126.0   116.0 116.0 116.0
Brazil Soybeans 149.0 149.0   126.0 126.1 126.0
             
Argentina Corn 55.0 55.0   53.0 52.7 53.0
Argentina Soybeans 51.0 51.0   44.0 44.0 44.0

Corn yield less than expected.
Bean yield higher than expected
 

7-day expected precip:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1660749298

6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

 

Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant.

Robert Louis Stevenson

Have a good and safe night!

 


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Price as of 08/18/22 03:04AM CDT.
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Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 22 615'0 617'4 610'2 610'2 -4'6 615'0 02:54A Chart for @C2U Options for @C2U
Dec 22 612'0 614'6 606'6 606'6 -5'2 612'0 02:53A Chart for @C2Z Options for @C2Z
Mar 23 619'0 622'0 614'0 614'0 -5'2 619'2 02:54A Chart for @C3H Options for @C3H
May 23 622'4 625'0 617'0 617'0 -5'2 622'2 02:54A Chart for @C3K Options for @C3K
Jul 23 620'2 623'0 615'2 615'2 -5'4 620'6 02:54A Chart for @C3N Options for @C3N
Sep 23 588'0 588'0 584'2 584'2 -4'2 588'4 02:54A Chart for @C3U Options for @C3U
Dec 23 580'4 582'4 576'0 576'0 -4'4 580'4 02:54A Chart for @C3Z Options for @C3Z
Mar 24 590'0 594'4 588'0 589'0 -3'2 588'0s 02:54A Chart for @C4H Options for @C4H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 22 1475'0 1487'6 1472'0 1474'0 -1'2 1475'2 02:54A Chart for @S2U Options for @S2U
Nov 22 1390'0 1397'0 1380'0 1381'0 -9'0 1390'0 02:54A Chart for @S2X Options for @S2X
Jan 23 1396'0 1403'6 1386'4 1388'4 -8'0 1396'4 02:54A Chart for @S3F Options for @S3F
Mar 23 1399'2 1406'6 1390'4 1391'4 -8'2 1399'6 02:54A Chart for @S3H Options for @S3H
May 23 1401'2 1408'4 1392'4 1394'4 -7'6 1402'2 02:54A Chart for @S3K Options for @S3K
Jul 23 1402'0 1407'4 1392'2 1392'6 -8'4 1401'2 02:54A Chart for @S3N Options for @S3N
Aug 23 1374'0 1374'0 1374'0 1374'0 -9'0 1383'0 02:54A Chart for @S3Q Options for @S3Q
Sep 23 1344'2 1347'6 1338'2 1343'0 3'0 1342'6s 02:54A Chart for @S3U Options for @S3U
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 22 764'6 766'4 747'2 749'2 -14'0 763'2 02:54A Chart for @W2U Options for @W2U
Dec 22 781'6 783'4 764'6 765'6 -14'6 780'4 02:54A Chart for @W2Z Options for @W2Z
Mar 23 798'2 799'0 782'2 782'6 -13'2 796'0 02:54A Chart for @W3H Options for @W3H
May 23 807'0 808'4 792'4 794'6 -11'0 805'6 02:54A Chart for @W3K Options for @W3K
Jul 23 807'6 807'6 793'2 794'6 -10'6 805'4 02:54A Chart for @W3N Options for @W3N
Sep 23 806'4 808'4 797'0 798'2 -10'6 809'0 02:54A Chart for @W3U Options for @W3U
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 22 106.575 106.875 106.430 106.785 0.299 106.486 02:54A Chart for @DX2U Options for @DX2U
Dec 22 106.145 106.575 106.145 106.425 0.264 106.161 02:54A Chart for @DX2Z Options for @DX2Z
Mar 23 105.835 105.726 Chart for @DX3H Options for @DX3H
EB - BRENT CRUDE - ICEEC
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Oct 22 93.29 93.90 93.05 93.54 -0.11 93.65 02:54A Chart for EB2V Options for EB2V
Nov 22 92.68 93.30 92.49 92.90 -0.12 93.02 02:54A Chart for EB2X Options for EB2X
Dec 22 91.97 92.57 91.76 92.11 -0.19 92.30 02:54A Chart for EB2Z Options for EB2Z
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Stanford, IL
Chg Zip Code: 
 
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High: 82°F
Low: 60°F
Precip: 22%
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Precip: 20%
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Stanford, IL
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 64oF Feels Like: 64oF
Humid: 87% Dew Pt: 60oF
Barom: 30.06 Wind Dir: ENE
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 3 mph
Sunrise: 6:10 Sunset: 7:50
As reported at Andys House, IL at 2:00 AM
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