Free DP on Beans to Oct. 1, 2013
Friday Afternoon Comments (5/16)
We spent the first part of the week recovering losses from the May S&D report that was construed as bearish, mostly on the realization that 12/13 corn supplies remain tight. Old crop corn ending stocks of 759 mln. bu. are 92 mln. bu. below last year’s May estimate of 851 mln. bu. and planting progress is behind last year’s accelerated levels. CN closed 11 cents higher today while new crop was down 4 cents. For the week CN gained 17 cents while CZ lost 10 cents. Planting progress made great strides this week and Monday’s planting progress report is anticipated to show corn 60%+ planted. Rain moving through the Midwest Sunday through Wednesday is expected to slow planting, but dry weather is expected after this rain event. Informa issued an updated estimate showing corn acreage at 96.3 mln. acres, yield at 160.9 bpa, and production of 14,398 mln. bu. (USDA 97.3, 158.0, 14,140) Demand news this week was mixed as ethanol production for the week increased slightly, egg sets and chicks placed were mixed, and weekly export sales were thin (as expected.)
Slow cash movement and tight old crop supplies of U.S. soybeans helped support futures today as SN gained 21 cents. New crop soybeans are supported in part by good planting progress in corn alleviating some of the worry regarding acres switching to beans. For the week SN gained 49 cents and SX gained 23 cents. Continued good meal export demand and positive domestic crush margins are supportive and some trade estimates are promoting ending stocks approaching 100 mln. bu. (Current USDA projection is 125 mln. bu. vs. 210 mln. bu. in last May’s estimate.) Informa’s latest estimate shows bean acres at 78.3 mln., yield of 43.9 bpa, and production of 3,388 mln. bu. (USDA 77.1, 44.5, 3,390)
Wheat futures were moderately easier today as wheat continues to follow corn. WN as 4½ cents weaker today and 21 cents lower this week. The market attempted to generate some excitement this week regarding dry weather in Russian and Ukrainian winter wheat areas but did not have any success. Informa estimates all wheat acres at 56.3 mln. and production at 2,064 mln. bu. (USDA 56.4 and 2,057).
Comments from Mid-Co Commodities
Have a Good Weekend & Be Careful!