Monday Afternoon Comments (10-24-16) Corn futures ended the day weaker. A firmer dollar combined with a mostly favorable forecast and disappointing weekly export inspections weighed on prices. As of midday, funds were estimated to have sold approximately 4,000 contracts of corn. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections were a marketing year low this morning at 21.3 mln. bu. compared to 35 mln. bu. a week ago. The low shipment number was attributed to strong bean shipments causing corn to suffer in response. However, this week's exports still surpassed last year's shipments at 16.3 mln. bu. this week. Moving forward, corn exports will need to average roughly 40.4 mln. bu. per week in order to reach the USDA's 2.225 bln. bu. export projection. For reference, average shipments from this point forward last year totaled 36.5 mln. bu. per week. It is also interesting to note that there is talk in the marketplace that Brazil’s corn ship lineup has little to no business and that the USDA’s annual export forecast for Brazil may be too high by 1 to 1.5 MMT’s. In this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the trade is expecting to see U.S. corn harvest around 60% complete vs. 46% a week ago. NOAA’s 6 to 10 day weather outlook shows above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation south of Interstate 80, while above normal precipitation is expected in the north.
Soybean futures traded firmer today but closed the session well off the highs. The on-going rally in world vegetable oils continues to be supportive. Record demand combined with talk that La Nina could impact the 2017 South American and U.S. crops also offered underlying support. Weekly soybean export inspections were also viewed as friendly today at a whopping 100.7 mln. bu., which was well above trade expectations. However, it is interesting to note that weekly shipment numbers have been paralleling last year's to a degree. Cumulative exports of 384 mln. bu. are up 11% from last year. In order to meet the USDA’s 2.025 bln. bu. annual export projection, shipments will need to average roughly 35.4 mln. bu. per week from this point forward. This afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions report is expected to show U.S. soybean harvest near 77% complete. A cold front is expected to move across the Midwest Tuesday through Thursday bringing rainfall to many areas. Early rainfall prediction totals range from .25 to .75". A few scattered showers are also expected later in the week and into the weekend for the northern sections of the Midwest. South America’s weather outlook remains favorable for seeding and crop development with ample rainfall and variable temperatures expected to prevail over the next two weeks. Brazil reports their soybean plantings are now 26% completed compared to a 19% average, with Mato Grosso 43% finished and Parana 49% done.
7-day rainfall forecast (Oct 24-31)
Comments from Mid-Co Commodities.
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