Friday Morning Comments (4-29-16) Corn futures closed mixed on what turned out to be pretty quiet day overall. July corn traded on both sides of unchanged as the market felt a little tired after another busy week of trading. July corn closed 16 ¼ cents higher. This makes 2 out of the last 3 weeks that the weekly chart shows gains of 16 cents or more. The news cycle continues to circulate the same stories, with a friendly theme in most of them. Concerns about the weather in South America, an improved export picture, and a lower dollar have all offered support to corn this week. Dry weather in Brazil has lowered the private estimates of its corn crop. One estimate out today lowered the 15/16 Brazil crop by 7.6 MMT to 79.5 MMT. The Bunge CEO stated that Brazil could lose 5 to 10 MMT of exports due to the smaller crop size. The USDA is currently estimating the Brazil corn crop at 84 MMT, and Brazilian exports at 28 MMT. U.S. export business has improved as the competitive edge is evident in the recent upswing in weekly sales numbers. The big 85 Mln. bu. weekly number yesterday included a very large sale to Japan. The USDA announced another sale of 100,000 tons to Japan this morning. The dollar continues to weaken as it moved into new recent lows today and is the lowest level since late last summer. Rain moves through the cornbelt tonight and tomorrow. Next week does look warmer and drier, which should allow progress to continue. Monday’s crop progress report is expected to show another sizable jump from this week’s 30% complete.
Soybeans were mixed with the nearby months gaining on the deferreds today. Like corn, news was limited. The outside markets were generally supportive with the lower dollar. The funds continue to be interested in maintaining their large net long position. The CFTC will update fund positions this afternoon, which will likely have some bearing on Sunday night’s trade. The size of the Argentina bean crop is being highly debated. Some losses are expected due to the wet weather, but a drier trend is expected over the next few days. This should aid an active harvest progress pace. One estimate today at Argentina corn and bean harvest at 25% complete. China is rumored to have a renewed appetite for buying beans with the U.S. likely included in some way. Bean planting progress should be more active next week as the calendar turns and the forecast dries out. Bean planting in this week’s report was 3% done, and is expected to jump to near 10% on Monday’s report. July beans did have a strong week, closing up 33 ½ cents. Comments from Mid-Co Commodities
Have a good & safe weekend!
Be grateful for what you have and stop complaining - it bores everybody else, does you no good, and doesn't solve any problems. Zig Ziglar
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