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Thursday Afternoon Comments (8/27) Corn fell from earlier session highs but was still 2 cents higher for the day. Funds were buyers of 5,000 contracts as of mid-day. Some concern over drying conditions in the eastern corn belt as well as improving outside economic issues helped support corn today. DOW up 250 points is supportive as is crude up over $3.50 a barrel and above the $40 mark as well as moderating news regarding China. It feels as though corn is settling into a trading range until the September S&D report. Weekly export sales were a mixed bag as 14/15 saw a net decrease of 5.2 mln. bu. while 15/16 commitments rose 38.8 mln. bu. with Mexico the only buyer of note. YTD 14/15 commitments are 1,860 mln. bu. vs. 1,916 mln. bu. last year. 15/16 commitments tally 261 mln. bu. vs. 392 mln. bu. at this time last year regarding commitments for the upcoming marketing year. The International Grains Council estimates 15/16 world corn production at 968 MMT, a 2 MMT increase from their previous estimate. USDA’s current estimate is at 986 MMT – quite a difference of opinion.
Soybeans traded higher today on short covering allowing futures to bounce off of the six-and-a-half year low posted in the previous session. Recently bean prices have bore the brunt of the concerns over China’s faltering economy. However, the fact that the world financial markets seem to have stabilized somewhat was seen as supportive as was the nearby forecast. Conditions are expected to be warm and dry across much of the Midwest in the coming week. This has traders concerned that the warmer temperatures and lack of rain could stress late maturing soybeans. Solid bean export sales were also friendly. New crop soybean export sales came in this morning at 53.5 mln. bu. This was the best week of new crop sales for the new marketing year to date. Of that total, China bought 32.5 mln. bu. China has now secured 180 mln. bu. of U.S. beans in the new crop position. Total new crop soybean sales are running about 360 mln. bu. behind last year’s pace at 437.9 mln. bu. China is said to be shifting their buying from South America to the U.S. as offers become more expensive and harder to find there. Chinese crushers are rumored to be looking for U.S. beans for the November/December timeframe off of the PNW.
Wheat under a bit of pressure from Egypt buying Black Sea wheat and closed 3-5 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 19.4 mln. bu. brings YTD commitments to 360 mln. bu. vs. 414 mln. bu. last year. Countries buying wheat were scattered with no one destination standing out.
Have a good & safe night!
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2015 Crop Stanford Grain will accept grain with the Viptera trait but WILL NOT accept corn with the Duracade trait. Thank You for your cooperation.