2014 Fall Policy is Available Click on 2014 Fall Policy-Bottom Left
Friday Afternoon Comments (9/19) There was a bit of a bounce in the corn market as we started the week on some short covering due to FSA acreage reports implying a drop in planted acres versus current USDA projections. (Range of estimates is a slight decline to over 2 million acres.) This was quickly offset by continuous reports/expectations of fantastic yields the balance of the week. Today was no exception as corn closed 6-7 cents lower. Funds were sellers of 4,000 contracts by mid-session. For the week, CZ lost 7 cents though the week’s decline felt more severe, possibly due to the fact CZ is now trading new contract lows and there are analysts calling for another 20+ cent downside risk. Demand is currently overlooked as everyone talks yield, and another large increase in average yield is expected in the October S&D report. USDA currently has average yield at 171.7 bpa and there are estimates approaching 180 bpa. Weekly ethanol report showed corn usage at 97.8 mln. bu. Weekly export sales of 26.0 mln. bu. did little to excite the trade but we did sell 14.8 mln. bu. of corn to Mexico for 14/15. Harvest weather "bottom line" is expected to be good over the next two weeks with the first half of October also expected to be good. The hurricane in the gulf the first week of October forecast quickly dissipated. Informa’s latest estimate for 2014 planted corn acreage is 89.3 mln., -2.3 mln. from USDA. Production is 14,024 mln. bu. 2015 corn acres are estimated at 87.3 mln. acres.
Soybeans also found some support early in the week on acreage reduction concerns (no change to a 1.1 mln. acre decline the range of estimates) but as with corn the support did not last and fund selling/lower trade ruled the balance of the week. Soybeans fell 14-15 cents today with funds sellers of 4,000 contracts by mid-session. For the week SX fell 28 cents (after losing 36 cents last week) and there are estimates SX can make a run to the $9.00 area. The announced sale of 45.4 mln. bu. of beans to China for 14/15 was viewed as old news today, though YTD export commitments (not counting this sale) stand at a very solid 936 mln. bu. Harvest weather does not seem an issue for soybeans and the trade is focused on how large the crop may be – there are yield estimates approaching 50 bpa in the trade! Informa’s latest soybean acreage estimate is 83.7 mln., -1.2 from the UDSA projection. This equates to 3,857 mln. bu. of production using current yield estimates. 2015 U.S. soybean acres are estimated at 87.7 mln. acres.
Wheat defensive in sympathy with corn and wheat with WZ down 14 cents today and 28 cents for the week (after losing 33 cents last week.) Informa’s 2014 wheat production estimate of 2,046 mln. bu. is very close to USDA’s 2,029 mln. bu. Their estimate of 2015 wheat acres is 57.0 mln.
Comments from Mid-Co Commodities Have a good & safe night!
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