Good Morning. Corn and bean prices are seeing some recovery after another sell-off yesterday. Enthusiasm over the China trade talks is helping today. The weakness yesterday was tied to a poor export sales report and technical related selling once the decline moved through some key technical points. While the export data was still “old” (as of January 3rd), the first net cancellation of bean sales for that week in history forced the funds into sellers. The initial weakness increased once March beans fell back through the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages. Wheat was even weaker yesterday as Black Sea wheat prices have fallen to make them more competitive again. The trade keeps hearing about the opportunity for increased U.S. wheat sales, but the proof has not been very convincing yet. Wheat sales yesterday were less than 5 Mln. bu. The U.S. trade delegation to China finished up their meetings overnight, with progress being noted. The President of China stated that talks will resume in Washington D.C. next week. NOPA crush will be out this morning. Estimates for January crush are 169.57 Mln. bu., which would be a record for the month. Informa showed 2019 U.S. acreage yesterday at 91.6 Mln. for corn and 86.0 Mln. for beans. It seems like acreage is more in doubt this year due to the lack of fall fieldwork and the on-going trade dispute with China. The grain markets are closed on Sunday night and Monday. They will re-open on Monday night. Banks are closed as well. The USDA will be closed so all the weekly reports will be pushed back a day next week. Producer selling continues to be slow with the down day yesterday pushing price targets even farther away. Coors Light is having a “National Toast to Farmers” today in response to the Bud Light Super Bowl ads. You can follow along on social with hashtag #ToastToFarmers. Have a nice weekend.
USDA report – February 8, 2019
USDA - Jan
USDA – Nov.
USDA - 2017
USDA - Feb
USDA – Dec
USDA - 2017
Corn ending stocks
Bean ending stocks
Wheat ending stocks
USDA - 2019
USDA – 2018
All winter wheat
Hard red winter
Soft red winter
USDA – Dec. 1, 2018
USDA – Dec. 1, 2017
Corn quarterly stocks
Bean quarterly stocks
Wheat quarterly stocks
Corn production less than expected. Ethanol use down 25 Mln. bu.
Feed use down 125 Mln. bu. Corn ending stocks not nearly as low as expected
Bean yield and production near expectations. Bean ending stocks less than expected
Bean crush up 10 Mln. bu. Exports down 25 Mln. bu.
Winter wheat seedings less than expected
Brazil beans at 117 MMT, Brazil corn at 94.5 MMT
Argentina beans at 55 MMT, Argentina corn at 46 MMT
7-day precip forecast (Feb 15-Feb 22)
Have a good & safe day!
He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life. Muhammad Ali
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