2018 Fall Policy is Available (click on link in the left margin)
Friday Afternoon Comments (10/19/18) Corn closed 3-4 cents lower again today. For the week CZ fell 7 cents. Funds cut their short position substantially this week and were even estimated long in a limited amount mid-week but they end the week with an estimated short position of 5,000-7,000 contracts. Higher trade Monday was tied to short covering strength in soybeans, but as U.S. harvest weather improved and export business failed to excite, corn futures fell through the week. Ukraine corn harvest has shown better than expected yields and they are competitive in the world market. U.S. has a record export pace expected and any news that detracts from this expectation will concern the market. Trade is also realizing ethanol margins are tight and there is at least some concern regarding hitting USDA objectives. The November S&D is anticipated for possible yield reductions to offset possible reductions in demand later in the marketing year. NOAA’s winter weather outlook reflects light EL Nino conditions expected with the Midwest forecast for normal precip and normal temps east and above normal temps west. Southern U.S. expecting normal temps and above normal precip. (Wooly worms and Farmer’s Almanac disagree re: winter weather.)
Soybeans closed 7 cents lower today and SX lost 10 cents this week – quite a reversal from the short covering rally on Monday. Drawback from hopes the China/U.S. trade situation would improve (we seem to want to get our hopes up at least once a week,) improved harvest pace, and poor weekly exports all weighed on futures through the week. Funds did liquidate part of their short position this week but still trade from the short side. News today that China cancelled 180 tmt of U.S. bean purchases and unknown destinations canceled 120 tmt of purchases set the trading tone for the day. China announced the weakest 3rd quarter economic growth since 08/09, which has market bulls hoping China becomes more willing to negotiate with the U.S. Brazil to see good rains through the weekend and planting progress is adequate enough that these rains are viewed as beneficial and not hampering planting.
Wheat closed 2 cents higher today with Chicago WZ 2 cents lower this week. Futures were range bound this week. Bulls continue to anticipate a rally as Russian wheat exports decline and demand moves to the U.S., at least to some degree.
Weekly Export Sales:
Oct 11th USDA Production & Stocks Report
USDA – Oct.
USDA – Sept.
Corn Ending Stocks
Bean Ending Stocks
Wheat Ending Stocks
Comments from Mid-Co Commodities
Average Price Program Results: Fall Corn=$3.71 Fall Beans=$9.85
7-day precip forecast (Oct 19-26) Have a good & safe weekend!
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