2019 Harvest Policy is available by clicking on Fall Policy in left hand column.
Friday Morning Comments (9/20/19) Good morning. Grain prices are steady to lower this morning on another quiet news day. The weather forecasts in both the U.S. and Brazil continue to lean a little negative. A warmer bias is still forecasted for most of the Midwest through into the 2nd week of October. There will be some heavy rainfall totals seen in parts of the central corn belt. An abrupt ending to the growing season is looking less and less likely as the warm temps push along maturity. Better chances of rain are expected in Brazil next week. Not every area will get rain so some spots will still be too dry to plant. However, some areas will be able to run. China and the U.S. are expected to wrap up trade talks today. The Chinese delegation is expected to hang around into early next week and visit some ag spots in Montana and Nebraska. There are some pork sites that they are expected to visit so I am sure that disease prevention will be on high alert. The South China Post newspaper reported yesterday that Trump was prepared to raise tariffs again if talks don’t go well. It was also noted yesterday that China was ready to reduce tariffs on soybeans and pork. The U.S. is set to grant tariff exemptions on up to 400 Chinese products. It is becoming increasing difficult to keep track of all the trade concessions and trade threats these past few days. Luckily, the market has been fairly resigned to the back and forth, and seems uninterested until concrete details become available. Both the monthly cattle on feed and the weekly commitment of traders’ report are out today. Going into today, December corn was posting a 4 cent gain for the week, while Nov. beans were down nearly 6 cents. The weekly price change and the daily volumes highlight a general lack of interest in grains right now. Need some new demand stories or some confirmations of the crop size to move out of this range. Have a nice weekend.