2015 Fall Policy (Available at Bottom of Left Hand Column)
Olympia Pacecetters 4-H Club will be serving lunch Sat., Oct 10th from 11am-1pm at Stanford Grain. Lunch includes: Avanti's Gondola, chips, apple, cookies & water. Donations will be accepted for Helping Hands Food Pantry serving Allin Township
Columbus Day is Monday Oct 12th. Grain markets will be open and trading regular hours that day! (Government offices and banks will be closed)
Corn traded defensively throughout the session and closed 4½ cents lower. Fund buying earlier in the week evaporated and they were sellers of 5,000 contracts at mid-day. Tomorrow’s S&D report and positioning ahead of the report came into play. Regarding private estimates, there is a 750 mln. bu. range in production estimates, so it will be hard to surprise everyone in the market tomorrow. Average trade estimates: Production 13.46 bln. bu, yld 166.4, harvested acres 80.9, ending stocks 1.498 bln. Harvest progress was not that far along when USDA compiled numbers and the acreage number may the number in play tomorrow. Assuming trade estimates are correct, total corn supply in the U.S. for 15/16 would be 15.191 bln. bu. vs. 15.477 bln bu. last year, a decline of 286 mln. bu. Also of interest is that it is estimated IL/IN/MI/OH will have 650 +/- mln. bu. less corn production than last year while IA/MN will have 250 +/- mln. bu. more corn production than last year. Moving corn where it needs to be will be an issue this year. Weekly export sales were uneventful, coming in at 20.5 mln. bu. and bring YTD sales to 434 mln. bu. vs. 602 mln. bu. at this time last year. Mexico accounted for 65% of weekly sales.
Soybeans also defensive today and closed almost 10 cents lower in the nearby. Funds were sellers of 4,000 soybean, 2,000 meal, and 1,000 soyoil contracts at mid-session. Giving back this week’s gains seemed the order of the day as news is lacking. Weekly export sales were a solid 47.2 mln. bu. which brings YTD commitments to 806 mln. bu. vs. 1090 mln. bu. at this time last year. As usual, China the buyer of note, picking up 53% of the weekly sales. The market remains concerned over the export sales pace but it has picked up the past few weeks. We will see if USDA makes any changes to export projections in tomorrow’s report. Projections for tomorrow’s report are also quite variable with a production estimate range of 400 mln. bu.! The average estimate is 3.884 bln. bu. with yld at 46.9, harvested acres at 82.9 and ending stocks at 398 mln. bu. Using the figures above, soybean supply in the U.S. for 15/16 will be roughly the same as last year. As with corn, acres may be the driver as there are estimates bean acres need to drop over 1 mln. acres.
Wheat faltered in tandem with corn and beans today to close 5 cents lower. Funds were sellers of 3,000 contracts at mid-day. Weekly sales were uneventful at 10.6 mln. bu., bringing YTD commitments to 418 mln. bu. vs. 512 mln. bu. last year. Ending stocks in tomorrow’s report are expected near 821 mln. bu. vs. 875 mln. bu. in September.
Estimates for Oct. 9th USDA Crop Production & Ending Stocks Reports
USDA – Oct
USDA - Sept
Corn ending stocks
Bean ending stocks
Wheat ending stocks
Have a good & safe night!
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2015 Crop Stanford Grain will accept grain with the Viptera trait but WILL NOT accept corn with the Duracade trait. Thank You for your cooperation.