Stanford Grain Business Hours: Monday-Friday 7:30-4:00 CBOT Trading Hours: 7:00PM-7:45AM-Markets Open (Sun-Thurs) 7:45AM-8:30AM-Markets Closed 8:30AM-1:20PM-Markets Open 1:20PM-7:00PM-Markets Closed Daily Limits: Corn 25 cents, Beans 75 cents, & Wheat 35 cents
Friday Afternoon Comments (6/22/18) Corn futures closed steady/mixed today as we end the week. CN fell 4 cents for the week but the lower trajectory seems to have been halted as end users start to enter the market to price needs and the trade may be rediscovering that even with national yield holding at the current estimate of 174 bpa, 18/19 ending stocks are not far above the 10% stocks to use ratio that garners more market attention. Estimates for next Friday’s acreage report are 88.4 mln. (90.2 LY), just 400,000 acres larger than the March estimate. A retreat from the 174 bpa level to 172 bpa would offset the increase in acreage if realized. Most of the corn belt is in good shape currently (KS and MO would be happy with more precip.) as we head towards the end of June. The forecast remains for a ridge to form in the nation’s mid-section in early July but it currently is not expected to last long nor have much impact. The lower 18/19 ending stocks estimate and the issues with SA production tightening the world balance sheet gives us less margin for error, though. In export news today Mexico bought 30 tmt for 17/18 and 101 tmt for 18/19 while Panama bought 117 tmt of 18/19 – nice to see Mexico buying corn for 18/19 considering trade issues.
Soybeans rallied 14 cents today in a very uneven trading week with SN losing "just" 10 cents. Trade issues with China continue to hang over the marketplace but it seems the rhetoric slowed as the week progressed and traders are most likely hoping this means cooler heads are prevailing and progress at least has a chance of being made before our next "line in the sand" date of July 6th. As China is our largest bean customer what they do is important but there are other buyers in the world. Brazil has priced themselves out of the marketplace to many traditional destinations but probably don’t mind with China showing up to buy beans. This is opening the door for U.S. origins. The uncertainty continues to be a negative to the futures market. Next week’s acreage report expected to come in at 89.7 mln. (90.1 LY), 700,000 acres higher than in March. If true, and coupled with good yield and less export demand, 18/19 ending stocks could approach our ending stocks expectations for 17/18. China continues to push the idea they can get by with fewer bean imports. Wheat futures were lower today as nearby futures fell 4 cents in Chicago and 1-2 cents in the deferred months. For the week Chicago WN fell 8 cents but the market is "rediscovering" dry weather in the Black Sea region. WN/WU firmed a penny this week and CIF basis remains supported.
Comments from Mid-Co Commodities
Average Price Program Results: Fall Corn=$3.71 Fall Beans=$9.85
7-day precip forecast (June 22-June 29) Have a good & safe weekend!
Your best teacher is your last mistake. Ralph Nader
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