Stanford Grain Company
               309-379-2141 Tel 866-379-2141 Toll-free
                             207 West Main Street - Stanford IL 61774 
              
Thursday, September 29, 2016
 
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Harvest Hours:
Monday-Saturday: 7AM-7PM
Sunday: Noon -5PM
(weather permitting)


2016 Fall Policy is available at the bottom of the left hand column

CBOT Trading Hours:
7:00PM-7:45AM-Markets Open (Sun-Thurs)
7:45AM-8:30AM-Markets Closed
8:30AM-1:15PM-Markets Open
1:15PM-7:00PM-Markets Closed
Daily Limits: Corn 25 cents, Beans 65 cents, & Wheat 35 cents

Thursday Morning Comments (9-29-16)

  • The grain markets are enjoying some early session strength, one of the stronger overnight sessions we have seen in a while.
  • Technical buying ahead of tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks report is forcing speculators to cover shorts.
  • The trade continues to search for flash export sales announcements following rumors of large Chinese bean purchases and yesterday’s announced corn sale to Mexico.
  •  Yesterday’s sale of 62.09 mb of corn to Mexico was the 4th largest daily sale ever and a record sale to Mexico. The largest corn sale ever was to the former Soviet Union to the tune of 146.4 mb (1991).
  •  The outside markets are mostly quiet with equities, crude oil and the dollar all holding near unchanged.
  • Crude oil enjoyed one of the largest rallies of the year on Wednesday (up 5.4%) following news that OPEC will attempt to curb output. If (a huge IF) a production cut is actually obtained, it would be the cartel’s first move to cut production since 2008.
  •  There continues to be an on-going concern of crop losses and quality issues with the Australian wheat crop. Heavy rains, especially along the eastern growing regions, have taken a toll on the crop. The Aussie Bureau of Meteorology continues to predict above average precipitation for the region.
  •  The S. African government is in the process of relaxing rules for importing US GMO corn following the recent drought. Final decisions will be announced by October 5th.
  •  A U.S. district court judge in Kansas ruled lawsuits brought by U.S. farmers against Syngenta AG over the sale of bio-tech corn seed not approved for import by China can proceed as a class action.
  • China’s Golden Week Holiday begins on October 1st and will run through the 7th.

Short-covering rally / minor tech buying ahead of tomorrow’s report.

Weekly export sales were above estimates for beans; below for corn.

In addition to the Q. Stocks report, FND for Oct futures is also Friday.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released Friday afternoon.
More Comments 

Grain prices are trading on the higher side on what has been a steady to mostly lower week for prices so far.  Some short covering is being seen ahead of the stocks report as well as the end of the month and quarter.  Crude is back down slightly this morning but did see a big rally in that market yesterday.  There is some talk that beans and the products are trying to catch up to that.  The dollar is mixed.  The USDA will update quarterly stocks as of Sept. 1st tomorrow and also give a final look at 2016 wheat production.  This will be released at 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.  What once looked like a clear week for harvest for the eastern belt has now turned wetter with Illinois seeing some current and/or expected light rainfall for the rest of the week.  Temps are expected to warm again next week, with rain chances more mixed.  Rain looks to favor the far eastern belt over the next week.  Spend the last couple days in Ohio where harvest is still slow to get started.  We left Ohio yesterday in rain so looks like harvest will be slow to get much traction this week.  It is still early there, but the folks that we visited with there thought that the USDA was likely a little high on their yield estimates.  Bean sales this morning were good at 62.1 Mln. bu.  Corn sales were just ok at 22.6 Mln. bu.   Wheat sales were solid at 21.0 Mln. bu.  Some additional export announcement could be seen before then, but China will be on holiday all next week so news out of them will turn quiet.  It is expected to be mostly a technical day ahead of the numbers tomorrow.  Next week will bring more harvest talk and the start of the anticipation for another production estimate from the USDA on Oct. 12th
 



Estimates for Friday 9/30 Stock Report

  USDA – Sept ‘16 Avg. Est. USDA – June ‘16 USDA – Sept. ‘15
Corn Stocks   1.757 4.722 1.731
Bean Stocks   0.202 0.870 0.191
Wheat Stocks   2.398 0.981 2.097
         
  USDA – Sept ‘16 Avg. Est. USDA – Aug ‘16 USDA - 2015
All Wheat   2.326 2.321 2.052
Winter Wheat   1.662 1.657 1.370

Comments from Mid-Co Commodities. 

Have a good & safe day!

The starting point of all achievement is desire.
Napoleon Hill

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Local Cash Bids
 
  Fall 16 Dec Jan 17 Fall 17 Jan 18
STANFORD CORN Cash Price
Basis
Futures Month @C6Z @C6Z @C7H @C7Z @C8H
  Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart
BEANS Cash Price
Basis
Futures Month @S6X @S7F @S7F @S7X @S8F
  Chart Chart Chart Chart Chart
Price as of 09/29/16 01:36PM CDT.
Month Symbols
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Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 16 329'6 333'4 328'0 329'2 0'0 329'2s 01:21P Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 339'4 343'2 338'0 339'0 0'0 339'0s 01:20P Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
May 17 346'4 350'2 345'0 346'2 -0'2 346'0s 01:20P Chart for @C7K Options for @C7K
Jul 17 353'4 357'4 352'2 353'2 -0'2 353'0s 01:20P Chart for @C7N Options for @C7N
Sep 17 361'0 364'2 359'2 359'6 -0'2 360'0s 01:20P Chart for @C7U Options for @C7U
Dec 17 369'4 373'2 368'2 369'2 -0'4 368'6s 01:20P Chart for @C7Z Options for @C7Z
Mar 18 381'6 382'6 378'6 379'2 -0'2 379'0s 01:20P Chart for @C8H Options for @C8H
May 18 385'4 385'4 385'4 385'4 -0'2 384'4s 01:20P Chart for @C8K Options for @C8K
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Nov 16 947'0 957'2 946'0 950'6 4'6 950'2s 01:20P Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
Jan 17 953'2 963'2 952'2 956'4 4'2 956'2s 01:20P Chart for @S7F Options for @S7F
Mar 17 959'4 969'0 958'6 963'0 4'6 963'0s 01:20P Chart for @S7H Options for @S7H
May 17 965'6 975'0 965'4 968'6 4'6 969'4s 01:20P Chart for @S7K Options for @S7K
Jul 17 970'4 980'0 970'2 974'0 4'6 974'6s 01:20P Chart for @S7N Options for @S7N
Aug 17 976'4 978'0 970'0 973'2 4'4 973'6s 01:20P Chart for @S7Q Options for @S7Q
Sep 17 959'4 961'6 958'6 961'6 3'6 961'0s 01:20P Chart for @S7U Options for @S7U
Nov 17 948'6 955'0 948'0 950'6 3'2 951'2s 01:20P Chart for @S7X Options for @S7X
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 16 401'6 406'6 397'6 399'2 -4'2 399'0s 01:20P Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 424'6 429'4 420'6 422'2 -4'2 421'6s 01:20P Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 440'0 443'0 434'2 436'0 -4'2 435'4s 01:21P Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 449'0 453'0 444'2 446'2 -3'4 446'2s 01:20P Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 463'0 463'0 459'0 459'4 -4'0 460'0s 01:20P Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 485'0 485'0 478'0 479'0 -3'6 479'0s 01:20P Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 16 95.315 95.625 95.245 95.540 0.204 95.336 01:24P Chart for @DX6Z Options for @DX6Z
Mar 17 95.235 95.530 95.215 95.445 0.189 95.256 01:24P Chart for @DX7H Options for @DX7H
Jun 17 95.135 95.345 95.120 95.280 0.094 95.186 01:24P Chart for @DX7M Options for @DX7M
EB - BRENT CRUDE - ICEEC
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Nov 16 48.87 49.81 47.99 49.22 0.53 48.69 01:25P Chart for EB6X Options for EB6X
Dec 16 49.46 50.39 48.55 49.79 0.55 49.24 01:25P Chart for EB6Z Options for EB6Z
Jan 17 49.85 50.90 49.06 50.32 0.60 49.72 01:25P Chart for EB7F Options for EB7F
My Custom Markets
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