2014 Fall Policy is Available Click on 2014 Fall Policy-Bottom Left
Thursday Afternoon Comments (10/30) December corn traded above its 100 day moving average of $3.72 ¼ and tested its August high of 3.81 before turning choppy and ultimately ending the day slightly lower. Corn futures continue to grapple with talk that the crop could be even larger than originally thought and the fact the producer remains a reluctant seller. Weekly export sales were poor this morning at 19.3 mln. bu. This was the lowest sales figure of the marketing year to date. Total 14/15 corn commitments are down 8% from last year. Current interest for U.S. corn remains light due to unfavorable world price relationships. Traders also wonder if corn sales will remain slow until the U.S. bean export program slows down. There is hope however if the corn crop is smaller in South America and the Black Sea region that U.S. exports could increase throughout the marketing year. The forecast looks favorable for harvest progress to continue as the Midwest weather maps look mostly clear. Temperatures are expected to turn much colder this weekend especially in the east. Longer range forecasts do hint at rainfall the middle of November, some of which could be heavy.
Watching soybean futures trade today likely made producers feel like they were riding splash mountain at Disney World. You start out heading higher, plateau, and then quickly dive lower hoping all along you can avoid the big splash at the end. November futures had a 30 ¼ cent trading range today. In the overnight the November contract made a two month high before turning weaker and ending the day down 18 ¾ cents. Today’s decline was mostly attributed to profit taking. As of midday funds were estimated to have been net sellers of approximately 2,000 contracts. Weekly soybean export sales came out this morning at 48.7 mln. bu. Total bean commitments currently total 1.253 bln. bu., which is an increase of 6% from last year. The USDA also announced an additional sale of 132 MT’s of U.S. beans to China. The story of tight spot soybean meal due largely in part to a shortage of rail cars and logistical struggles continues to circulate, although there is talk that some end users are finally getting coverage. Farmer selling of soybeans has improved in the U.S. and Brazil as prices rallied earlier in the week. Argentina’s producers however continue to be tight holders. The South American weather forecast looks mostly non-threatening. Timely rainfall is projected to fall across the northern and central areas of Brazil over the next two weeks. Comments from Mid-Co Commodities Have a good & safe night.
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