Monday Afternoon Comments (5/4) The corn market has few bullish friends as both the old and new crop months reached new price lows for the move. It was a good weekend for corn planting across the corn belt as analysts expect planting progress to reach 50% and possibly higher. Not sure the trade will believe any figure under 50% regardless. Weather forecasts are on the wet side for this week, especially in the western corn belt, with next week becoming drier. Temps to remain normal/above in the 2 week time period. A good start so far for the crop. Avian flu issues in Iowa continue to be dragging on corn but probably more so for the meal market. Up to 25% of the egg laying flock in Iowa is affected. Some scattered rainfall seen in the U.S. wheat belt with the wheat quality tour beginning today. Talk that Russian will soon drop the export tax on wheat also a negative factor for wheat and grains in general. Word that China will offer additional corn out of their reserve also a bearish item for traders to digest. Weekly corn export inspections were on the high side at 41.4 mln. bu. bringing the export total to 1.089 bln. bu. Updated S&D estimates from the USDA will be released on May 12th.
The soy oil market led the entire complex higher with rumors of China seeking offers on large quantities of oil. Oil was up over a full point higher with funds buying up to 8000 contracts on the day. The talk persists that the port workers in Argentina will reach an agreement today but this surely gave the complex some residual strength after the soy oil rumor. Also, there was talk of two cargoes of soybeans sold to the EU out of the U.S. Funds were also buyers of up to 4000 contracts of soybeans. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised their soybean production in Argentina to 60 mmt from their last estimate of 58.5 mmt. This happened towards the end of last week but just tells us the USDA may be low at 57 mmt. The Argentine soybean harvest progress is near 62%. Planting progress in soybeans should be near the 15% level for the entire U.S.
Today's Planting Progress Report: Corn is 55% planted. Avg. is 38%. Illinois is 69% planted. Avg. is 47%. Soybeans are 13% planted. Avg. is 9%. Illinois is 12% planted. Avg. is 7%. Winter wheat is rated 43% good to excellent, up 1% from last week. Spring wheat is 75% planted. Avg. is 40%.
Have a good & safe night!
A pessimist is one who makes difficulties of his opportunities and an optimist is one who makes opportunities of his difficulties. Harry S Truman
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